Mayer then looked at how respondents actually voted. Unsurprisingly, someone who rated the Republican degrees better than the Democrat was basically certain to vote for the Republican, and vice versa. But Mayer also found that people who had similar feelings about both candidates were also the swingiest — the voters most likely to switch which party they supported typically rated the candidates no more than 15 degrees apart.
However, some political scientists, like Corwin Smidt, who studies vote choice at Michigan State, argue that the percentage of swing voters is, in fact, much lower and in decline — he estimated just 6 percent of all Americans voted for a different party in than the one they backed in Smidt uses a much narrower definition of what a swing voter is — someone who consistently votes, but switches back and forth between the two major parties.
But what if you include more casual voters? Could the number of swing voters in the U. For one thing, KFF is trying to account for people who might not always vote but could turn out if motivated. While swing voters look similar to their decided counterparts on many demographics, they tend to be younger, more moderate, and less engaged on national politics. Democrats may have the edge on three issues among swing voters: climate change 38 percentage point advantage , health care 18 percentage points , and immigration 10 percentage points while President Trump, on the other hand, may have the edge on the economy 12 percentage points.
As the presidential campaign continues, this data indicates that Democrats may benefit more when the focus is on climate change, health care, and immigration, while President Trump may have the advantage on the economy among this group of swing voters. Yet, it is important to note that if the economy slows down significantly, the edge that President Trump has on the economy may dissipate. The issue of health care means different things to voters on different sides of the aisle.
Swing voters who prefer President Trump on health care do not appear to be rallying behind a single health care issue but offer varying responses.
Who Are The Swing Voters? Topics Other. Tags Politics Elections Polling Demographics. Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Some experts say parties should focus on energizing their supporters, while others say they should also look at swing voters and people they might be able to convince.
The truth Activists who want to push Democrats to the left while still winning can do so by identifying popular progressive ideas to run on.
How can candidates and campaigns appeal to undecided people, if they can be appealed to at all? And to some extent, those types of sentiments are understandable. By the time I got her on the phone, she had decided and mailed it in. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower through understanding. Financial contributions from our readers are a critical part of supporting our resource-intensive work and help us keep our journalism free for all.
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